Very interesting report by Lloyd’s and the University of Cambridge on possible scenarios to analyze geopolitical climate risks. The basic idea behind the report is that the race to reach net zero as early as possible is not a linear and deterministic trajectory but is rather an uncertain and pliable journey, influenced by human behavior and promising twists and turns throughout the century.
The report identifies three main scenarios: Green Globalization, Climate Anarchy and Green Cold War. The latter scenario was identified as the most likely.
- Green Cold War is a situation where like-minded states unite around major powers to form ‘climate blocs’, with competition between blocs for energy, technology, and market dominance. The competition drives investment and innovation, but considerably raises the long-term environmental and geopolitical stakes.
- Climate anarchy – possibly the least likely scenario – would see self-interest takes the form of protectionism and mercantilism, pushing the world in the wrong direction on emissions
- Finally, Green Globalization – assessed as the most environmentally desirable, but not the most likely outcome if state self-interest continues to dominate climate negotiations – supposes that major powers coordinate closely to implement solutions, putting the world on track to meet climate goals